Presented by Matt Glova and the LifeTime Asset Management team:
Weekly Market Update, July 31, 2023
July data showed consumers continuing to spend despite lower-than-expected income growth as well as higher-than-expected confidence. The Fed hiked another 25 bps in its July meeting and isn’t currently expected to hike again for the remainder of the year. Equity investors continue to take on risk as tech and emerging markets both continue to rally. Mid- to long-term Treasury yields have risen with investors having sold off due to the equity rally.
Weekly Market Update, July 17, 2023
Consumer credit was abnormally low, but, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, consumers continue to remain upbeat. Consumer price inflation hit its lowest level in more than two years. Producer price inflation also continues to decline, increasing just 0.1 percent year-over-year in June. Falling inflation and better-than-expected bank earnings supported an equity rally. Rates dropped beyond the one-year timeframe as inflation continued its decline.
Weekly Market Update, July 10, 2023
There was a divergence between Fed officials and the IS M Services and Manufacturing indices. The employment report showed 209,000 jobs added in June, which came in below expectations but indicated that hiring may be slowing, thus bringing down the demand side of inflation. Stocks took a breather as they digested the potential for a restart of rate hikes. The yield curve continued its bear flattening as intermediate-term bond yields lifted.
Weekly Market Update, July 3, 2023
Durable goods orders and consumer confidence reports bode well for business and retail sentiment. Despite improving confidence, the increase in retail inventories and personal spending indicate we have yet to see it translate into a pickup in spending. Stocks rose to cap a strong quarter. We will see whether the Nasdaq continues its leadership through earnings season in a few weeks. The short-to-intermediate curve has seen steepening as improving economic data and a strong equity market have improved sentiment.